This article, prepared by the PRA AHS Committee, discusses the market factors identified by the Planning Board that could affect housing development in neighborhoods such as Parkwood if the Council approves the proposals in the Board’s Attainable Housing initiative.
Previous articles in this series have covered the initiative’s Goals, the Impact on Types of Homes in Parkwood, Priority Housing Districts, and the proposed Pattern Book. Because our Committee aims for objectivity and neutrality, much of the text of this article is composed of direct quotes from the final report on the initiative.
To support the development of its recommendations, Montgomery Planning evaluated the market feasibility of constructing attainable housing within established single-family neighborhoods. It looked particularly at the factors that might affect the building of duplexes and triplexes in neighborhoods such as Parkwood, in addition to, or instead of the replacement of an existing single family home with an even larger one, as is already permitted.
As defined by the Planning Department, “Replacement homes are the purchase of an existing house by a builder, the demolition of that existing house, and the construction of a replacement home that is then sold at a profit. Replacement homes are substantially larger and more expensive than the prior home that was demolished.”. [pp74; dp75**].
“Montgomery Planning identified 683 replacement homes built since the year 2011. The original homes averaged 1,500 gross square feet, while the replacement home averaged 3,730 gross square feet. 19 Builders bought the properties for an average of $640,000, and then sold the subsequent replacement homes for an average of $1,635,000.” [pp74; dp75**].
Further refining its analysis, the Planning Department found [not surprisingly] that the replacement home industry targets the lower cost and most attainable properties in high demand neighborhoods and converts them into the highest cost properties. “Within the 10 neighborhoods with the greatest concentration of replacement homes built since 2010…the replacement home industry has acquired 35% of the relatively least expensive houses [121 of 349 homes] in [these] neighborhoods and sold them for more than 130% of the average sale price in these neighborhoods”. [pp76; dp77]
Planning concludes that “these data indicate that while the replacement home industry is relatively small in comparison to the entire number of housing units in Montgomery County, it is resulting in a significant and meaningful loss of the most attainable single-family properties.” [pp76; dp77**].
Of particular interest to Parkwood residents is a more detailed look undertaken by the Planning Department at replacement homes in a portion of Kensington Estates, the community immediately north of Parkwood from Westbrook Lane to Knowles Avenue. The area studied has one of the most dense concentrations of replacement homes built in the last several years.
As shown in the report [pp78; dp79], since 2011:
- 50 replacement homes were built
- $815K=the average sale price of all homes in the area
- $485K=the average value of properties acquired by replacement home builders
- $1.25M=the average sale price of replacement homes
These numbers illustrate the facts that homes to be replaced are bought at significantly less than the average of all home sale prices, and that the replacement homes sell for significantly more than the average of all home sale prices.
The Department then estimates that “if five percent of replacement homes built over 10 years [in the portion of Kensington Estates studied] had instead become multi-unit attainable housing properties [i.e., duplexes triplexes, and quadplexes], it would have resulted in one or two properties converting to multiple units in the entire 10-block. At 30 percent it would result in eight properties converting, which is still less than one multi-unit attainable property per block over a 10-year period.” [pp78;dp79].
The Planning Department gives no specific basis or rationale for selecting 5% and 30% for its estimates. Presumably, it is done for purposes of illustration. It then goes on to state that the “Montgomery County Planning Department finds that the production of attainable housing [i.e., multiplexes] will be incremental [in single family zoned neighborhoods], with what is likely a small number of units built each year. This finding aligns with the Missing Middle market study presented previously to the Planning Board which found that development of smaller and/or less dense multi-unit properties would be unlikely to generate enough value to justify the purchase and redevelopment of homes of average value in many neighborhoods.” [pp76; dp77].
Summary: In the County as a whole, developers in the replacement home business are focusing on purchasing the lower cost and most attainable properties in high demand neighborhoods and converting them into the highest cost properties. The Department, however, found that the total number of replacement homes purchased and sold by developers was relatively small. A case study of replacement houses in a portion of Kensington Estates, a neighborhood adjacent to Parkwood illustrates these points. The Planning Board therefore concludes that the impact of its proposed zoning changes with regard to multiplex units in neighborhoods like Parkwood would be “incremental” and “manageable”.
The next article in this series will discuss the possible impact on the value of homes in Parkwood.
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** Throughout this and subsequent articles, two page numbers will be used as references to the text of the Planning Board’s Final Report to the Council. The letters “pp” will refer to the printed page number of the report. The letters “dp” will refer to the digital page number of the report in PDF format.